The Race for NY-21

Let's try something new, Dems

March 15, 2025

I am old enough to remember when the Canadians were the good guys, and the Russians were the bad guys. These were bipartisan labels, universally applied; there was never any doubt or debate about the nature of each relationship. The Canadians were our friends and neighbors and allies. The Russians were the reason that I and my classmates practiced hiding under our desks, shielding our eyes from the blinding light of the feared nuclear blast just outside St. Anthony’s school’s windows. The nuns would grade us on these practiced maneuvers, and the good sisters consoled us with the promise that St. Anthony was on our side.

I hope that someone up there is watching over our Canadian friends this month, as the President destroys all of the good will that his predecessors built up over a lifetime. The new Premier and leader of Canada’s Liberal Party, Mark Carney, quickly assessed the situation at hand – America can no longer be trusted. I will restate an important distinction in his comment that I wrote about in an earlier post. Carney did not say that Trump could not be trusted, he said that America can no longer be trusted. Our friends and allies can no longer be assured of the values of the American people. We elected President Trump. Twice. The damage he has done to our standing in the global community will outlive him and probably most of us.

Our strained relationship with our neighbors au nord de la frontiere will enter into the impending congressional race in NY-21, as soon as our Congressperson, Elise Stefanik, can be released from her seat in Congress to move on to her new post as UN Ambassador. With the Republican majority in congress so slim (218/215), Republicans are delaying confirming her new UN appointment because her vote in congress is too important to lose.

Her replacement in NY-21 will be decided in a special election to be scheduled by New York Governor Kathy Hochul after Stefanik gives up her seat. Democrats have already announced their candidate to run for the position, Blake Gendebien, a dairy farmer who owns Twin Mill Farms in Lisbon, New York. Republicans are jousting for position with party committees in the district’s 15 counties, and a hoped-for anointment by the President. Nine Republicans have already announced their intention to run, with five more reportedly considering entering the race. NY-21 is considered one of New York’s safest districts to run as a Republican. Party registration leans heavily Republican. Stefanik won in 2024 with over 62% of the vote. Current party registration lines up with 41% of voters as Republicans, 26% Democrats, and almost as many independents at 25%. Working Families Party registrants, Conservatives and “other” make up the balance.

It has been a long time since NY-21 has sent a Democrat to Congress. The last one, Bill Owens, a Plattsburg attorney, declined to run for reelection in 2010 when the district lines were redrawn after the 2010 census, leaving the registration heavily lopsided in favor of Republicans. That advantage has only increased over the years, especially after the 2020 census and subsequent redistricting. Democratic congressional candidates have had to deal with the reality of that handicap for the last fifteen years, with predictable results. Democratic nominee, Paula Collins lost in 2024 by over 80,000 votes, 215,996 v. 132,447. In 2022 Matt Castelli came up short 52,000 votes, 168,579 v. 116,421. No one knocked on more doors, met more voters, or shook more hands than 2018 and 2020 candidate Tedra Cobb, who still came up short by 32,000 votes in 2018 and 56,000 votes in the next election (a presidential election year with a much heavier turnout). Over the last five elections, the average loss margin for the Democratic candidate has been 63,800 votes, but hope springs eternal.

According to many observers, the biggest handicap for Democratic NY-21 candidates, other than the party registration disadvantage, is the subsequent lack of funding from the Democratic National Committee because of the district’s categorization as solid Republican. National committees and PACs do not commit money in districts that have little hope of producing a winning candidate. Ditto large donors, who might write small “thanks for being our Bannerman” checks but will allocate their larger contributions to other causes with better chances of a successful outcome. Democratic candidate Blake Gendebien now faces that reality, which is why our phones keep lighting up with calls and messages from “unknown callers” in western New York.

I may not be a political consultant but I am good at arithmetic, and I am also a student of behavioral economics, the science of what motivates people to make the decisions they make. It is said that repeating the same exercise over and over while expecting a different result is the definition of insanity, so I will not be going out on a limb to suggest that if the current Democratic candidate goes before the same audience with the same message as the last eight candidates, Democrats are going to get a similar result, to wit:

From Democratic candidate, Blake Gendebien’s webpage:

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Why I'm Running

To Work Hard

Not enough of the people who are supposed to be representing us in Washington have calluses on their hands or know what it means to put in a real day’s work. Out-of-touch politicians on both sides of the aisle spend too much time fighting with each other and jockeying for power. But on the farm, when you’re making small square bales of hay, milking cows, or shoveling stalls, you don’t ask the person next to you which party they belong to, you just get to work. That’s exactly what I’ll do.

To Help Our Neighbors

Having grown up here, I’ve seen how Washington has neglected communities in the North Country. Over the last six years alone, our region has lost more than 700 local dairy farms, and families have been forced to leave for higher-paying jobs elsewhere – but it doesn’t have to be this way.

To Deliver Results

My goal is to be a bridge between our region and Washington. I’ll be an honest voice to uplift farmers, families, veterans, and small businesses while keeping bureaucracy in check. There is simply no excuse for the gridlock that has failed to deliver even the most common-sense solutions to help North Country families to not just get by – but to actually get ahead.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Exciting, wasn't it? Feeling - Fired Up? Just makes you want to…….take a nap. This homepage is a perfect example of every boilerplate campaign home page that you have ever seen—and is exactly the messaging that Democrats need to lose this election (again). Democrats have run good, qualified, hardworking candidates in past elections. North country Republican and independent voters have not been swayed. Democrats are 0-8 since 2010. It is not the messenger, it is the message.

This year presents a unique and timely opportunity to attract Republican and Independent voter support because of the on again / off again tariff blowback and the huge impact that Trump’s trade war and DOGE purge is having on north country families and businesses. This is especially true in tourism, a dominant north country industry. Here in the Adirondacks, many hospitality businesses fly the Canadian Maple Leaf flag to welcome Canadian vacationers, some of whom have been renting cabins and camps for the entire season for generations. Northway signs are printed in English and French as an accommodation to visitors from Quebec. Now, according to some media reporting, cancellations from Canadian visitors are running over 50%.

You can feel the hostility rising on the CBC (Canadian Broadcasting Co.) webpage:

The staycation goes Canada-wide: Scrapped U.S. trips could be a domestic boon

ANALYSIS

The U.S. has covertly destabilized nations. With Canada, it's being done in public

ANALYSIS

Searching for 'recession' and 'tariff' surge as U.S. mood sours

No thinking, caring person is happy about any of this, including Republican and independent voters. If - and only if - Gendebien takes the gloves off, and highlights where the blame lies: with Trump and the Republican Party, then Democrats may have a shot. None of this careful, moderate, Kumbaya, "I'll reach across the aisle and work with Republicans" stuff. Gendebien has to show voters exactly how the wheels are coming off, and why. The message has to offer a solution: by swinging just a few (2) Congressional seats, we can stop this insanity which is impacting our families and our communities. If he does that, he will attract support from voters – Republicans, Democrats, and importantly, independents. If he doesn't, he will join past (losing) candidates Paula Collins, Matt Castelli, Tedra Cobb, Mike Derrick, Aaron Woolf, et al.

Trump's utilization of tariffs as his signature trade policy tool made little sense to economists but even less sense now as we see the retaliatory measures being taken by our antagonized trading partners. As US consumers bear the brunt of price increases as tariff costs are passed on by US importers, voters will come to understand why these tactics fell out of favor in the first place. Democrats must convert that disappointment into votes. "Stop Government Waste" looks good on a bumper sticker, until you find out that the "waste" that Musk’s DOGE purge eliminated were the folks processing your Social Security check each month, or the grant reimbursement to your local health care center. These "savings" sound great as abstract exercises, but budgeting with a wrecking ball will always do more damage than good. We all now know of local essential nonprofits that were impacted by DOGE cost cutting and we probably also know of families who were personally impacted by the cancellation of critical medical research projects. This administration has done more damage in two months than most people feared happening in a full four year term, and the impact is hitting our north country communities hard.

Democrats need to make sure that everyone knows who is to blame.

I suspect that this tariff / trade war / DOGE circus, and the subsequent economic and market turmoil will continue manifesting itself over the next few months, which should coincide with the campaign and special election for Stefanik’s seat in NY-21. There will be plenty of opportunities to illustrate who the circus master is (Trump), who the enablers are (the Republican Congress) and - who can fix it, (the voters in this election). Without a new message, Democrats have little chance of winning back this seat. Importantly, according to Pew Research, only 36% of independent voters—who will be necessary to swing in NY-21— think that tariffs benefit the US economy. (That 36% will figure it out soon enough.) The current trade policy / DOGE fiasco provides Democrats with a very timely opportunity to attract support from voters—including Republicans and Independents—who are suffering because of it. As Donald Trump likes to say: “What have you got to lose?”

Comments and suggestions are always welcome, as are Shares (!) If you like what you have read, and you would like to receive a Saturday morning email with the current week’s Adirondack Diary update, please consider subscribing.

All posts are public and available for free.

Join me on BlueSky @northcountryjoe.bsky.social